CS:GO/CS2 Knife Chances

Years of watching CS:GO highlights on YouTube takes a toll on any Counter-Strike player, and seeing an abundance of knives with different color patterns can awaken a burning desire to buy one. And let’s be honest, running around with a crude default knife is not that fun, unless you’re Flusha, of course. Ever since the release of the game back in 2012, the probability of unboxing a knife from one of the cases had been unknown for quite some time. Luckily for you, in this article, we’re going to give you a quick rundown on the chances of getting a knife from unboxing a case in Counter-Strike 2. 

What Are The Odds of Getting a Knife in CS2?

With the abundance of different knives with vibrant colors and patterns, a clean Paracord or a Huntsman knife would be a perfect companion to run from spawn to a bomb site for any CS2 enthusiast. And many think that the case opening is the way to go if you’re looking for a flashy addition to your inventory. For many years, the sole source of information about the likelihood of getting a knife were the YouTube clips of case openings and other anecdotal evidence on Reddit. 

In 2017, a year of Major upsets, intending to keep a significant part of the CS:GO market afloat, Valve was forced to comply with the Chinese regulations regarding the contents of CS:GO loot boxes and the odds of receiving items of varying rarity. Valve begrudgingly disclosed the official numbers for case openings, revealing the odds of getting a knife in CSGO, so that the players could have a general idea on probabilities for drops of specific quality. This change may have saved a lot of money for players, but more importantly, it revealed how miniscule the odds were of getting a knife skin from a case opening. You can check the Probability Announcement on the official Chinese Counter-Strike website. Below, we provide a comprehensive table of the likelihood of unboxing skins of various rarity.

However, take this information with a grain of salt, as these values may differ depending on multiple factors, and, considering the recent changes in CS2, some values may be higher or lower as of now. As we can see, each tier of rarity is approximately five times rarer than the previous, except for the difference between the Covert skin category and the “Gold” category of knives and gloves. 

How Many Cases You Need to Open to Get a Knife in CS:GO/CS2?

The odds published by Valve imply that one would need to open an insane total amount of 385 cases on average in order to get a knife or a pair of gloves. Every single case opening is a totally separate round of gamble, so the chances of getting a knife through a determined and tedious series of case openings won’t guarantee you an expected outcome. Of course, there’s always a place for a margin of error or an extreme stroke of luck where you could acquire a Talon Doppler on a third open, but statistically speaking, you’re better off buying a skin you like if you want to look fresh and clean without spending extra. 

We’ve all seen the case opening clips where a streamer strikes gold on one of his first attempts, but how often does that happen if we take in consideration all other case openings happening daily? The 0.26% probability is in the realm of getting eaten by a shark or something similar. Summing up, the chances of getting a knife in CSGO through a case opening are as slim as the chances of Arsenal winning the Prem.

Chances of Getting a Knife in 100 Cases

There’s a plethora of cases in different price ranges, we have a detailed guide on which ones are the best to open. If you were to open a sizeable amount of 100 cases, each costing between $0.16 to $90+, there is only a 21.5% chance you would end up with a knife skin. Even if you have a lot of cases in your inventory collecting a dust, all the money you would have to put up for a hundred keys and cases, even the cheapest ones, would get you a guaranteed knife of your choice on Skin.Land.

CS2 Knife Chance Calculator - How Much Does it Cost? 

Having the odds of obtaining a knife from a case thanks to Valve and the Chinese Ministry of Culture, we can calculate the approximate cost of case openings per one knife. In order to get the price right, we have to consider the average cost of a case and a key, as well as the odds of getting a CSGO knife chance. If you have a desired knife from a certain collection, all you have to do is to take cost of a case, add cost of a key and divide it by the probability of opening a knife:

(Cost of a Case + Cost of a Key) / ≈0.0026

Let’s say we have a Gamma Case, a case that costs $2.39 and includes a Gamma Doppler knife, and a respective key that sells for $15 on average. We divide the combined cost of a case and a key by the probability of opening a knife, and what we get is a mind-boggling $6,688. Uhm, that’s a used Toyota Corolla price bracket.

How to Increase Your Chances of Getting a Knife in CS:GO/CS2?

Given how low the CSGO knife odds are of getting a Gold item through a case opening, it would make more sense to invest in a knife skin of your choice on a Third-Party Marketplace, such as Skin.Land. With all the extra steps and stress you would have to endure during the tedious process of unboxing the cases, you could just buy a knife skin of your liking and save money, and more importantly, your precious time. Explore the marketplace, find the right time to buy at a lower price, and avoid the risk to go bust by gambling on case openings.