How CS2 Case Odds Work
Valve published these odds in 2017, after China required game publishers to disclose the chances of paid random rewards, and they're the same for every weapon case. The game first rolls the rarity, then picks one of the skins of that rarity in the case, then assigns a random wear and pattern. About one in ten skins also comes out as StatTrak™.
Every opening is independent. There's no pity system and no "due" knife: a hundred bad openings don't make the next one more likely to be good. Consumer and Industrial Grade skins never come from cases; you get them from map collections and weekly drops. For a full explanation of the grades, see our CS2 skin rarity guide.
In some regions, cases are opened with the X-Ray Scanner instead, which shows you the item before you pay for it. The odds behind it are the same; here's how the X-Ray Scanner works.
What Is Case ROI?
ROI (return on investment) compares what you spend with what you get back on average. For a case, the cost is the case price plus the $2.49 key, and the return is the expected value of the drop: the price of every possible skin in every possible wear, weighted by its odds, including the 10% StatTrak™ chance and the knife or glove pool.
An ROI of 60% means that, on average, you get $0.60 of skins for every $1 spent. The average hides huge swings, though: most openings return a few cents, and a rare knife occasionally pays for hundreds of cases.
Which CS2 Case Has the Best ROI?
We calculated the expected value of 42 weapon cases from their contents and current Skin.Land prices. These are the ten with the highest estimated ROI:
| Case | Case price | Expected value | Estimated ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $12.03 | $10.48 | 72% |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | $11.59 | $9.05 | 64% |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $4.51 | $4.03 | 58% |
| Operation Wildfire Case | $2.60 | $2.84 | 56% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $20.03 | $12.55 | 56% |
| Glove Case | $9.66 | $6.70 | 55% |
| Horizon Case | $1.44 | $2.09 | 53% |
| Operation Hydra Case | $26.46 | $15.16 | 52% |
| Chroma 2 Case | $3.38 | $2.99 | 51% |
| Gamma Case | $2.80 | $2.67 | 50% |
The median case sits at about 47%. The newest cases score worst, even though they cost only cents: the Gallery Case comes out at about 44%, the Fever Case at 38% and the Kilowatt Case at 32%. For those, the $2.49 key is almost the whole cost, while their skins are still cheap because of high supply.
Prices change every day, so treat these numbers as estimates for comparison, not a promise. If you're choosing a case for the knife pool, see which CS2 case is best to open and the best CS2 knife cases.
Souvenir Package Odds
Souvenir packages drop during Majors and contain map collections with six rarity grades, so the top grades are even rarer than in weapon cases:
| Rarity | Odds | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Grade | 80% | 1.25 |
| Industrial Grade | 16% | 6 |
| Mil-Spec | 3.2% | 31 |
| Restricted | 0.64% | 156 |
| Classified | 0.128% | 781 |
| Covert | 0.0256% | 3,906 |
Every Souvenir skin comes with gold stickers of the Major's teams, which is why a good Souvenir copy can cost much more than the regular one. More in our guide on how to get Souvenir packages.
Sticker Capsule Odds
Sticker capsules follow the same 80 / 16 / 3.2 / 0.64% pattern:
| Sticker rarity | Odds | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| High Grade (paper) | 80% | 1.25 |
| Remarkable (holo, glitter) | 16% | 6 |
| Exotic (foil) | 3.2% | 31 |
| Extraordinary (gold) | 0.64% | 156 |
Tournament stickers of popular teams and players tend to gain value after the Major ends and the capsules stop being sold.
Is Opening Cases Worth It?
Only if you enjoy the opening itself. On average you lose 30–70% of what you spend, and the chance of a knife is 0.26% per case. If you want a specific skin, buying it directly is almost always cheaper: you pick the exact skin, wear and pattern, and you know the price upfront. Browse the Skin.Land market and compare with what the same money would get you in keys. Curious about knives in particular? Read about your chances to get a knife.
CS2 Case Odds FAQ
What are the odds of getting a knife in CS2?
0.26% per case, or about one knife or pair of gloves per 385 cases on average. Each opening is independent, so there's no guarantee even after hundreds of cases.
What are the drop chances for each rarity in a CS2 case?
Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and a knife or gloves 0.26%. They're the same for every weapon case.
Which CS2 case has the best ROI?
By our estimate with current prices, the CS:GO Weapon Case 3 returns about 72% of the cost of opening it, followed by the eSports 2013 Winter Case (about 64%) and the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case (about 58%). No case has a positive average return.
Why do new CS2 cases have such a low ROI?
New cases cost only cents, so the $2.49 key makes up almost the entire cost, while their skins are still cheap because so many copies are being unboxed. Older, discontinued cases hold more valuable skins.
Is it cheaper to buy a skin or open cases?
Buying is cheaper in almost every case. On average, opening cases returns less than you spend, while buying lets you choose the exact skin, wear and pattern for a known price.
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