CS:GO and CS2 Case Odds and Chances

Skins in Counter-Strike 2 are not only a way to add more fun to your matches and boast unique weapon designs, you can also make them a source of profit. If you want to gain money through selling skins you get in game, it is useful to know, what cases give the best odds for expensive skins, that you will resell for maximum profit.

What Are CS2 Cases Odds and ROI?

The two main characteristics you need to consider when buying cases for profit are case odds and ROI. Case odds describe the chances for getting the items of certain rarity. Naturally, the rarer the items are, the more value players assign to them and the higher are your chances for profitable deals. The grades of rarity in CS2 are as follows:

• White and Baby Blue (Consumer Grade and Industrial respectively) are the cheapest items, they do not drop from cases, being distributed as the in-game rewards.

• Navy Blue (Mil Spec) is the lowest tier for items dropping from cases. The chance to get them constitutes 79.92%

• Purple (Restricted) has 15.98% drop rate.

• Hot Pink (Classified) contains a lot of valuable items and has a 3.2% drop rate.

• Red (Coverts) is a category where the most famous skins belong to. They are always in high demand, as the drop rate is 0.64%.

• Gold (Special) is the category all Knifes and Gloves belong to, with the chance of getting them being a tiny 0.26%, which means in practice that even after clearing a couple hundreds of cases you still won’t get a desired item. To learn more specifically about chances to acquire a knife, read our article right on the topic. 

These percentages are official data, as they were disclosed by Valve in 2017, after the China government demanded to publish the percentages so the players could spend their money understanding their odds. Here is a practical example to illustrate case odds in CS2. For Classified items, over 3% drop rate signifies that if you open a hundred containers, you will get 3 items of this category. However, these are average numbers, so keep in mind that the odds for each instance are calculated separately. There is no pity system in CS2, and the previous results do not influence the future ones. Consequently, profit isn’t guaranteed at any point.

However, there is another parameter which will help you to estimate which cases will provide higher benefits and profit chances, namely, ROI. The term comes from investment business and means Return of Investment. It describes how much you will get on each dollar spent. To calculate CS2 case ROI, consider not only its cost, but also the cost of the key to open it, as well as the potential value of weapons dropped. Consequently, the ROI of each particular case can change with time, as some skins increase or decrease in price. Naturally, the cheapest CS2 cases will provide higher ROI, as the initial investment is lower. The availability of cases also has its influence: if the case is dropped rarely or its supply on the market isn’t replenished at all, it naturally grows in price.

Keep in mind that the ROI of most cases is in the negative, which means, you will earn less money than you spend, unless you are lucky and get a covert, classified or otherwise valuable drop. There is no guaranteed way to profit from cases, but it is still possible, if you choose the container with a good ROI percentage and the fortune favors you when you open it.

Which CS2 Case Has The Best ROI?

While the odds for CS2 cases remain fixed, the ROI of item containers fluctuates with time. It can be especially volatile after big updates, such as the recent one. Currently, in November 2024, the case with the best ROI is the Gallery Case, released about a month ago. It is the only container with a positive ROI of 112%, which means you will get about 1.12$ for each dollar you invest. However, it is hard to predict how it will look after the market settles, so don’t hesitate to buy this case ASAP to maximize your profit. The most valuable items which are possible to obtain from the case are M4A1-S Vaporwave and Glock-18 Gold Toof, with the StatTrak FN versions costing up to $200-300 each. Various skins for Kukri Knife provide a lot of value as well, with the most expensive ones being Kukri Fade and Kukri Slaughter.

The second and third place in the list of the best ROI cases in CS2 is taken by instances of the Weapon Case, namely Weapon Case 2 and Weapon Case 3. For a long time they were considered the best CS2 cases to buy. However, their ROI constitutes 80% and 77% respectively, which leaves some probability for taking a loss. They remain a good option to consider though, with the chances to get such skins as SSG 08 Blood in the Water or CZ75-Auto The Fuschia Is Now.

ALL Best and Highest ROI Cases in CS2 (CS:GO)

Below you will find the list of all the cases with the ROI over 50% ordered by their potential profit.. Use the list to pick the best options to invest and get valuable skins to resell. There are different options to acquire cases  – just use our marketplace or follow the guide for other options.

CS2 (CS:GO) Souvenir Package Odds

Besides the odds for getting valuable drops from common cases described above, Souvenir packages are another valuable option to consider. Their supply on the market is limited, as they drop only during the largest esports events. The weapons from these packages are adorned with exclusive stickers containing the logos of participating teams and player signatures.

While common cases contain only 5 rarities, Souvenir packages contain 6 of them, which shifts the odds and makes the chances of getting a Covert item even lower, closer to acquiring a knife. In the table below you will find the souvenir package odds for each rarity grade along with the roughed-up estimation to simplify your calculations.

An example of a package that gives you pretty nice changes for a good return on your investment is the Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir package. It contains AK-47 Gold Arabesque which is a rarity per se, but with the unique tournament stickers will grow in price even more. Among other valuable options with higher odds of dropping you see SSG 08 Death Strike and UMP-45 Fade.

CS2 (CS:GO) Sticker Capsule Odds

Investing in CS2 stickers and sticker capsules is a whole other story. The stickers have grown in popularity after one of the recent updates which allowed players to place decorations on the weapon freely, without aligning them to several fixed spots. The update creates a lot of potential for new crafts, making stickers more appealing for casual players, investors and collectors alike. Similar to weapon skins, there are fixed odds for sticker capsules to drop valuable items. Here is a table with the percentages and their practical interpretation which helps to estimate the odds.

You can get valuable stickers from capsules dedicated to major esports events, such as Copenhagen 2024 Legends or Copenhagen 2024 Challengers. The stickers with team logos appeal not only to the fans of esports collectives, but to many players who look for bright and originally looking decorations for their weapons. Skins of the most famous teams, such as Lynn Vision or Natus Vincere, add to the value of the weapon.

Armed with this knowledge, you will find the best way to invest in skins and stickers no matter how the market changes, using your knowledge about CS2 cases odds and newest ROI estimations.